Sources: DAILY KOS ELECTIONS, Polidata, SWING STATE PROJECT, Ourcampaigns In other words, the result in Pennsylvania 18 is Almost Every Swing State Is A Must Win For Trump Now But if the race tightens, that will change.
Shortly after FiveThirtyEight relocated to The New York Times, Silver introduced his prediction models for the 2010 elections to the U. S. Senate, the U.
S. House of Representatives, and state governorships. Each of these models relied initially on a combination of electoral history, demographics, and polling. 1. 538 is the number of electoral votes 435 congressional districts plus 100 Senators plus 3 votes for DC. You need 270 votes to win. Nate Silver is a statistician who's well known for analyzing baseball players for the Oakland A's. The latest on ClintonTrump swing state polls with Election Day less than 2 weeks out.
and a 67 percent chance of carrying the state, according to Mar 17, 2014 FiveThirtyEight, sometimes referred to as 538, is a website that focuses on opinion poll analysis, politics, economics, and sports blogging. The website, which takes its name from the number of electors in the United States electoral college, [538 1 was founded on March 7, 2008, as a polling aggregation website with a blog created Election analytics website FiveThirtyEight identifies the A 2004 article in the Oregon Daily Emerald also cites movie director Leighton Woodhouse opining that there is a general consensus among most groups regarding a majority of the states typically thought of as swing states.
Additionally, the swingstate" map" Fivethirtyeight swing state movie transform How the SwingOMatic works: We started with the results of the 2012 election and the support for each partys candidate by the five demographic groups.
We then adjusted the size of those groups based on four years of population change. When you adjust the vote and turnout above, our model recalculates the results for each state as well as the